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牛弹琴2020年第一场战争就要开始了特朗普
2020-01-08 01:22   来源:  www.drmcgowan.com   评论:0 点击:

牛弹琴2020年第一场战争就要开始了特朗普惊心动魄的事件,源于1月3日的一次斩首行动。若干年后回望,毫无疑

  惊心动魄的事件,源于1月3日的一次斩首行动。若干年后回望,毫无疑问,这一天,是2020年的第一个转折点。

The thrilling event stems from a beheading on January 3. Looking back a few years later, there is no doubt that this day was the first turning point in 2020.

  1月3日凌晨,巴格达国际机场笼罩在一片夜幕中。一架私人飞机悄然从叙利亚抵达,在一行迎接者的簇拥下,一位须发皆白的汉子钻进汽车,准备离开。

In the early hours of January 3, darkness fell over Baghdad International Airport. A private plane quietly arrived from Syria, surrounded by a line of greeters, a bearded man got into the car and prepared to leave.

  一架无人机突然出现在上空,发射的“地狱火”导弹瞬间将两辆汽车炸成碎片,并引发熊熊大火,多人死亡。人们搜索残骸时发现,一名死者残肢的无名指上,戴着一个镶着红色宝石的银戒。

A drone suddenly appeared above, firing a \"Hellfire\" missile that instantly blew two cars to pieces and sparked a blaze that killed many people. Searching for the wreckage, people found a dead man wearing a silver ring with a red gem on his ring finger.

  这个人最终确认,就是刚刚抵达巴格达的苏莱马尼少将——伊朗革命卫队精锐部队“圣城旅”最高指挥官。死者中,还有来迎接他的穆罕迪斯,伊拉克什叶派民兵组织“人民动员组织”副指挥官。

The man finally confirmed that he was the supreme commander of the \"Al-Quds Brigade\" of Major General Sulemani, the elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who had just arrived in Baghdad. Among the dead were Mohammedis, deputy commander of the Iraqi Shiite militia People's Mobilization Organization, who came to meet him.

  在美国华盛顿,五角大楼随后宣布:美国发动了这次袭击,总统特朗普亲自下达命令。几乎与此同时,在佛罗里达州海湖庄园度假的特朗普,罕见地发表了一篇无字推文,只有一面美国国旗。一图胜千言,尽在不言中,特朗普果然是舆论引导高手。

In Washington, D.C., the Pentagon later announced that the United States had carried out the attack and that President Trump had personally issued an order. Almost at the same time, Trump, who was on vacation at the Florida Hay Lake estate, posted a rare wordless tweet with just one American flag. In his silence, mr. trump is a master of opinion guidance.

  伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊亲自主持国家安全会议,据说这还是近20年来的第一次。他宣布,全国为苏莱马尼哀悼3天。

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei personally presided over the national security conference for the first time in nearly 20 years. He declared that the country mourned for Sulaimani for three days.

  但在伊朗,却充斥着对他的仇恨。因为在伊朗人眼中,苏莱马尼是一个不折不扣的传奇英雄,甚至被认为是仅次于最高领袖和总统的第三实权人物。

But in iran, there is hatred for him. Because in the eyes of the Iranians, Sulaimani is a true legendary hero, even regarded as the third most powerful figure after the supreme leader and the president.

  甚至有报道说,这位传奇少将的民众支持率,甚至一度超过总统达到65%,2017年,他还被美国《时代周刊》评为百大影响力人物之一。

There have even been reports that the legendary Major-General's popular approval rating, even at one point surpassing the president's 65 percent, was also named one of the top 100 influencers by Time magazine in 2017.

  他战功赫赫,曾从两伊战争的死人堆中杀出。那场惨烈战争,让伊朗丧失了100万人,大批军官殒没战场,苏莱马尼却因骁勇善战被火线提拔。1998年起,他就担任“圣城旅”最高指挥官,一干就是21年,直到最终身亡。

He fought so hard that he was killed from the dead in the war between Iran and Iraq. The bitter war cost iran a million people, a large number of officers perished on the battlefield, but mr. sulaimani was promoted to the line of war for bravery. Since 1998, he has been the supreme commander of the al-Quds Brigade for 21 years until his death.

  在伊朗,“圣城”,特指以色列掌控下的耶路撒冷。将耶路撒冷从敌人手中夺回来,是这些伊朗军人的精神追求。

In Iran, the \"holy city\" refers specifically to Jerusalem under Israeli control. It is the spiritual pursuit of these Iranian soldiers to take Jerusalem back from the enemy.

  作为精锐特种部队最高指挥官的苏莱马尼,成为伊朗战后最杰出最有谋略也最出生入死的的将军。美国推翻萨达姆政权后,他迅速进入伊拉克填补真空,据说策动了反美国的游击战争。在伊拉克,美国总共阵亡了4000名军人,如上面所述,据说603名就死于苏莱马尼之手。

Sulaimani, the top commander of the elite special forces, became one of Iran's most illustrious postwar generals and one of the most resourceful. After the United States overthrew Saddam Hussein, he quickly entered Iraq to fill the vacuum, allegedly masterminding anti-American guerrilla warfare. In Iraq, the United States killed a total of 4,000 soldiers, as stated above,603 said to have died at the hands of Sulaimani.

  叙利亚内战爆发后,他又亲临叙利亚指挥,在俄罗斯2015年出兵叙利亚之前,“圣城旅”是维护叙利亚总统巴沙尔的战斗力最强的部队。

After Syria's civil war broke out, he went on to direct Syria in person, and the Al-Quds Brigade was the most effective force to defend Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's presence before Russia launched its forces in 2015.

  此前2006年,以色列和真主党爆发战争。刚开始,在以色列猛烈打击下,真主党节节败退,苏莱马尼迅速前往黎巴嫩,指导真主党对以色列发动猛烈攻击,迫使以色列在蒙受重大伤亡后,不得不实现停火。

It follows a 2006 war between israel and hezbollah. At first, as hezbollah retreated following a heavy israeli strike, mr. sulemani quickly headed to lebanon to direct hezbollah's aggressive attacks on israel, forcing it to achieve a cease-fire after heavy casualties.

  尽管很多人也翻出旧照。在照片中,我们可以发现,就在几年前,苏莱马尼还和美军在亲密打着招呼,双方并肩作战,共同对付“伊斯兰国”。

Although many people have turned over old photos. In the photo, we can find that, just a few years ago, Sulaimani and the United States forces were close to each other and fought alongside each other against the Islamic State.

  在华盛顿,美国国务卿蓬佩奥宣称,对苏莱马尼的斩首是必要的,“什么都不做后果太严重,情报部门做出了评估”。

In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Peng Peio declared that the killing of Sulaimani was necessary, ``nothing was too serious, the intelligence department made an assessment'' .

  1月3日,美国驻伊拉克大使馆发布紧急命令:美国公民应尽可能,通过航空线路离开伊拉克,如果不行,就通过陆路前往其他国家。意思很明确,一定要赶快走,如果最快的方式不行,其他什么方式都可以,不走太危险。大使馆还特意提醒:使馆所有业务都关闭,任何公民不要靠近使馆。使馆,现在比哪儿都更危险。与此同时,五角大楼随即下令:第82空降师迅速集结,3500军人迅速部署到中东。此前,在美国驻伊拉克使馆遭到围攻后,特朗普已经下令,立刻增兵750人。战争似乎一触即发。蓬佩奥还给德国等多国外长打电话,通报情况,协调立场。1月3日,在北京,有记者提问:当地时间1月3日凌晨,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”部队指挥官苏莱马尼在伊拉克巴格达机场空袭中遇害。美方证实发动了此次袭击。中方对此有何评论?

On january 3rd the u.s. embassy in iraq issued an emergency order: u.s. citizens should leave iraq by air route as far as possible, if not, by road to other countries. The meaning is very clear, must go quickly, if the fastest way cannot, any other way can, do not go too dangerous. The Embassy also specifically cautioned that all operations of the Embassy are closed and that no citizen should be near the Embassy. Embassy, it's more dangerous than anywhere. In the meantime, the Pentagon immediately ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to assemble rapidly and the 3,500 troops to deploy to the Middle East. Trump had ordered an immediate increase of 750 troops after the U.S. embassy in Iraq was besieged. The war seemed imminent. Pompeo also called German and other foreign ministers to brief and coordinate positions. On january 3, in beijing, a reporter asked: local time on the early morning of january 3, iran's islamist revolutionary guard \"al-qaeda brigade\" force commander sulai mani in iraq baghdad airport air strikes were killed. The US confirmed the attack. What is China's comment on this?

  中国外交部发言人耿爽这样回答:我们高度关注有关事件。中方一贯反对在国际关系中使用武力,主张各方应切实遵守《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则以及国际关系基本准则。伊拉克的主权、独立和领土完整应当得到尊重,中东海湾地区的和平与稳定应当得到维护。我们敦促有关各方,特别是美方保持冷静克制,避免紧张局势进一步升级。

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang replied:'We are highly concerned about the incident. China always opposes the use of force in international relations and holds that all parties should earnestly abide by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the basic norms governing international relations. Iraq's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity should be respected and peace and stability in the Middle East and Gulf region preserved. We urge all parties concerned, especially the United States, to maintain calm and restraint and avoid further escalation of tensions.

  特朗普为什么突然批准这次斩首行动?表面看,是为了报复此前伊拉克民众围攻美国大使馆,向伊朗发出严厉警告,警告美国不会容忍第二次使馆人质危机,更不会重演利比亚班加西的惨剧。2012年9月11日,一伙武装分子突然围攻美国班加西的总领馆,正在该领馆的美国驻利比亚大使史蒂文斯,无路可逃,最终身亡。这也是33年来美国驻外大使首次死于武装袭击,该事件也成为希拉里总统大选的一个重要污点。但刺杀苏莱马尼,情况远比这个要复杂,从这次斩首行动看:

Why did Trump suddenly approve the beheading? On the surface, it was in retaliation for the siege of the american embassy by iraqis, sending a stern warning to iran that the united states would not tolerate a second embassy hostage crisis, let alone repeat the tragedy in benghazi. On 11 September 2012, a group of militants suddenly besieged the Consulate General of the United States of Benghazi, where Stevens, the United States ambassador to Libya, had no way to escape and eventually died. It was also the first time in 33 years that U.S. ambassadors abroad have died in an armed attack that also became a major stain on Hillary Clinton's presidential election. But the assassination of Sulaimani is far more complicated than this, as seen in this beheading:

  要知道,按照媒体的披露,早在2014年,以色列就差一点对苏莱马尼发动袭击,但最终被奥巴马叫停,原因是一旦刺杀成功,后果太难预料。

You know, as the media revealed, as early as 2014, israel almost launched an attack on mr. sulaimani, but was eventually halted by mr. obama because the consequences were too difficult to predict if the assassination was successful.

  俄罗斯外交部谴责:美国刺杀苏莱马尼太鲁莽,危机中东和平与稳定。联合国秘书长古铁雷斯警告:我们受不了海湾地区的另一场战争。

The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the US assassination of Suleimani as reckless and a crisis of peace and stability in the Middle East. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez warns that we cannot stand another war in the Gulf.

  众议院议长佩洛西就称,“美国领导人的首要任务是保护美国人的生命和利益”,但特朗普“参与挑衅和不相称的行动”,让美国军人、外交官和其他人的生命进一步处于危险之中。

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called \"the top priority for American leaders is to protect the lives and interests of Americans,\" but Trump's\" involvement in provocative and disproportionate actions \"puts the lives of American servicemen, diplomats and others further at risk.

  所以,在美国社交媒体上,“第三次世界大战”都上了热搜,看热闹不嫌事大的有之,忧心忡忡的有之,最可怜的,是那些家人在中东的美国人,接下来的岁月,他们无疑要生活在担惊受怕中。

So, on american social media,\" world war iii \"is on a hot search, watching the big, worried, and most pitiful, are the americans whose families in the middle east, the next few years, they will no doubt be living in fear.

  1,报复是必然的。所以,美国大使馆发布紧急通知,风紧扯呼!所有美国人,赶紧跑,越快越好。美国人估计正在仓皇打包撤离中。

Revenge is inevitable. So, the U. S. Embassy issued an emergency notice, the wind! All Americans, run as fast as you can. Americans are expected to be packing and evacuating.

  2,总有来不及跑的,不排除成为报复的对象。这些惨烈的报复场景,会很快在互联网上传播,刺激美国人的神经。

There are always those who don't have time to run and don't rule out being the object of revenge. These scenes of bitter retaliation will soon spread on the Internet, stimulating the nerves of Americans.

  3,报复,绝对不仅限于伊拉克。别忘了,“圣城旅”在多个中东国家有广泛影响力,那些地区的美国目标,无疑都处于高度戒备状态。

3, retaliation, absolutely not limited to Iraq. Don't forget that the Al-Quds Brigade has broad influence in many Middle Eastern countries, where U.S. targets are undoubtedly on high alert.

  4,即使伊朗最高层很克制,即使“圣城旅”不主动出手,但按照中东的习惯,也不排除某些激进分子,在激愤之下采取报复行动,一张将美国将军列为暗杀对象的照片,在互联网上广为传播。

4. Even though Iran's highest ranks are restrained, and even if the Al-Quds Brigade does not take the initiative, it does not rule out the practice of some militants in the Middle East to retaliate in anger.

  5,对美国目标报复后,美国肯定是更猛烈的反报复,接下来,爆炸冲突将不断,这是一次不对称的战争,血流成河。

5, after retaliating against American targets, the United States must be more violent anti-revenging, and then the explosion of conflict will continue, this is an asymmetrical war, blood flow into the river.

  6,更可能的,接下来将是在第三国的低烈度“代理人”战争。真主党、哈马斯、胡赛武装等等,都不会坐视不管,都必然向美国、以色列证明实力,一场血雨腥风啊。

6. More likely, this will be followed by a low-intensity \"proxy\" war in a third country. Hizbollah, hamas, houthis, and so on, will not sit idly by, must prove to the united states, israel strength, a bloody storm ah.

  7,刺杀行动也将微妙改变伊朗政治生态。伊朗强硬派更加强硬,更不会轻易做出妥协,继任的“圣城旅”最高指挥官将更加小心,对美国目标更不会心慈手软。

7. The assassination will also subtly change Iran's political landscape. Iran's hardliners are tougher and less prone to compromise, and its successor top al-Quds commander will be more careful and less receptive to US targets.

  8,美伊对峙加剧,也将改变中东格局。沙特将加速备战,以色列不会手软,土耳其则会趁乱扩大在中东的版图,在叙利亚驻扎有重兵的俄罗斯,肯定也不会毫无动作。

8, the US-Iranian confrontation intensified, will also change the Middle East pattern. Saudi Arabia will accelerate its preparations, Israel will not relent, Turkey will take advantage of the chaos to expand its territory in the Middle East, and Russia, with its heavy presence in Syria, will certainly not be without action.

  9,特朗普会夸耀自己武功,但如果战火蔓延,美国人伤亡扩大,政敌将会攻击他冲动冒险,缺乏战略,在大选年的特殊政治生态下,这一事件将持续发酵。

9, Trump will boast of his martial arts, but if the war spreads, American casualties expand, political opponents will attack him for impulsive risk-taking, lack of strategy, and the event will continue to ferment in the special political ecology of the election year.

  10,生灵涂炭同时,至少短期内,欧美股市将承压,金价会飙涨。这应该是一只真正的黑天鹅,但绝对不会是最后一只。

At the same time, at least in the short term, European and American stocks will be under pressure and gold prices will soar. It should be a real black swan, but definitely not the last one.

  唯一还略微让人庆幸的,是美国虽然对伊朗目标发动了攻击,但毕竟避开了伊朗本土。战争成本太高了,美国不想大打,伊朗应该也不想大打。

The only thing that is slightly flattering is that the United States, despite its attacks on Iranian targets, has shunned Iranian territory. The cost of war is too high, the United States does not want to fight, Iran should not want to fight.

  但不让人庆幸的是,枪炮毕竟无情,一旦打红了眼,那就不是一条国境线能够隔离的。所以,双方都在做最坏打算,已在中东部署有重兵的美国,又紧急向中东增兵。

But it is not fortunate that guns and guns after all ruthless, once the red eye, it is not a border line can be isolated. Therefore, both sides are making the worst-case plans, with the heavily-manned United States deployed in the Middle East and an emergency surge to the Middle East.

  别忘了,很多次惨烈战争爆发,最开始只是一个不经意的火苗,但一步紧逼一步的报复,最终陷入了战争的泥潭。

Don't forget that many bitter wars broke out, at first it was just a casual fire, but a step by step of revenge, finally into the quagmire of war.


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